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AFL Fantasy Breakevens

AFL Fantasy Breakevens

We calculate every AFL fantasy player's breakeven (what they need to score to maintain their current price) and compare it to our projections.

Breakevens last updated: 25 May 2023 by Joseph Mamone ( @josephmamone)

POSITION AFL TEAM PROBABILITY OPTIMISM
Definitions
BE PS AVG PROBABILITY
HIGHEST BREAKEVENS TEAM POS GP $ BE PS AVG PROBABILITY
Jarryd Lyons BRI M 3 590K 157.0 52.7 25.3
42.7%
Touk Miller GCS M 6 877K 148.0 101.9 95.0
69.3%
Callum Mills SYD M 9 739K 148.0 90.7 82.0
64.6%
Nick Daicos COL D 10 923K 146.0 98.7 111.0
68.6%
Noah Anderson GCS M 10 925K 138.0 98.8 103.2
70.9%
Tim English WEB R 10 1.01M 133.0 109.7 120.3
76.8%
Christian Petracca MEL M 10 899K 132.0 97.9 104.2
72.4%
Sam Walsh CAR M 6 967K 132.0 109.8 113.8
77.2%
Matt Crouch ADE M 1 740K 131.0 66.5 40.0
57.2%
Blake Acres CAR M 9 807K 129.0 82.8 91.0
66.4%
Luke Shuey WCE M 4 674K 128.0 70.3 67.0
60.2%
Nic Newman CAR D 10 848K 128.0 87.2 95.1
68.9%
Jordan Dawson ADE D/M 10 931K 128.0 102.2 106.1
75.5%
Patrick Cripps CAR M 10 812K 126.0 92.0 94.5
71.7%
Clayton Oliver MEL M 10 990K 126.0 113.4 118.7
80.5%
Jeremy Cameron GEE F 10 767K 125.0 84.4 95.2
68.5%
Nick Haynes GWS D 10 710K 124.0 68.0 81.0
60.2%
George Hewett CAR M 9 715K 122.0 82.3 78.1
68.5%
Rowan Marshall STK R 10 955K 121.0 105.2 109.7
79.1%
Tim Taranto RIC M/F 10 1.02M 121.0 113.1 119.5
82.1%
Jacob Hopper RIC M 8 749K 121.0 83.9 86.5
69.6%
Adam Treloar WEB M 7 841K 120.0 93.2 97.6
74.3%
Brad Crouch STK M 10 805K 119.0 96.7 97.6
76.2%
Tom Green GWS M 9 981K 119.0 106.7 115.2
80.4%
Dylan Shiel ESS M 9 702K 119.0 83.1 83.3
69.9%
Mitchito Owens STK F 10 646K 119.0 67.6 78.0
61.6%
Josh Kelly GWS M 9 908K 116.0 106.5 105.6
81.4%
Marcus Bontempelli WEB M 10 958K 116.0 111.0 108.8
83.1%
Jack Viney MEL M 9 802K 115.0 91.1 89.6
75.1%
Jack Bowes GEE D 6 576K 115.0 63.3 63.0
60.4%
Sebastian Ross STK M 9 631K 114.0 75.1 76.2
67.5%
Tim Kelly WCE M 10 866K 113.0 92.3 102.5
76.4%
Jake Lloyd SYD D 10 797K 113.0 91.3 92.6
76.0%
Jack Steele STK M 7 873K 113.0 103.2 101.0
81.1%
Darcy Cameron COL R/F 4 688K 112.0 77.5 73.3
69.5%
Luke Davies-Uniacke NTH M 7 754K 112.0 94.6 89.7
77.8%
James Harmes MEL M/F 4 446K 112.0 47.0 29.8
50.3%
Peter Ladhams SYD R 9 670K 112.0 74.9 76.2
68.1%
Brandon Ellis GCS D/M 6 626K 111.0 71.8 66.8
66.8%
Sean Darcy FRE R 10 841K 111.0 93.3 99.1
77.6%
Luke Ryan FRE D 10 803K 110.0 90.6 99.2
76.8%
Jamie Cripps WCE F 3 598K 110.0 62.0 55.0
61.3%
Tom J. Lynch RIC F 4 565K 110.0 61.0 51.8
60.6%
Stephen Coniglio GWS M/F 10 872K 110.0 98.6 101.6
80.3%
Darcy Macpherson GCS D/F 10 768K 110.0 79.9 89.0
71.5%
Noah Cumberland RIC F 6 446K 110.0 51.1 45.2
53.9%
Charlie Cameron BRI F 10 608K 109.0 65.1 68.5
63.5%
Andrew Gaff WCE M 10 595K 109.0 73.6 72.9
68.5%
Travis Boak PTA M 9 642K 109.0 73.5 65.8
68.4%
Tom Stewart GEE D 9 788K 109.0 90.2 86.3
77.0%
Adam Cerra CAR M 10 889K 108.0 96.0 99.3
80.0%
Max Holmes GEE M 10 676K 108.0 71.0 78.0
67.4%
Adam Saad CAR D 9 650K 108.0 72.1 75.4
68.1%
Will Day HAW D/M 8 768K 107.0 84.1 95.6
74.8%
Jamaine Jones WCE D 10 591K 107.0 66.6 69.2
65.2%
Nat Fyfe FRE M/F 4 480K 107.0 48.8 35.0
53.3%
Brodie Grundy MEL R 10 663K 107.0 80.4 81.2
72.9%
Cameron Guthrie GEE M 6 790K 107.0 93.0 86.8
79.0%
Callan Ward GWS M/F 9 489K 106.0 60.5 60.0
61.8%
Heath Chapman FRE D 3 601K 106.0 65.2 60.3
64.7%
Toby Nankervis RIC R 5 870K 106.0 98.2 107.4
81.7%
Rory Laird ADE M 10 936K 106.0 110.3 105.3
86.7%
Ed Langdon MEL M 10 600K 105.0 68.2 69.6
67.0%
Josh Ward HAW M 7 663K 104.0 78.3 77.7
73.0%
Will Setterfield ESS M 9 733K 104.0 83.0 94.1
75.5%
Caleb Serong FRE M 10 919K 104.0 102.4 109.9
84.3%
Darcy Parish ESS M 8 914K 104.0 107.2 107.9
86.3%
Will Brodie FRE M 5 666K 104.0 74.8 67.0
71.1%
Dion Prestia RIC M 9 626K 104.0 76.5 68.7
72.0%
Isaac Cumming GWS D 8 657K 104.0 79.9 72.4
73.9%
Jayden Short RIC M 7 880K 104.0 98.8 100.4
82.8%
Steele Sidebottom COL M 10 746K 104.0 81.3 85.1
74.6%
Patrick Dangerfield GEE M 8 763K 103.0 80.5 87.6
74.6%
Harry Schoenberg ADE M 4 453K 103.0 52.9 39.0
57.7%
Elliot Yeo WCE D 2 572K 102.0 64.3 46.0
65.7%
Tristan Xerri NTH R 1 556K 101.0 52.0 26.0
57.8%
Max Gawn MEL R 7 745K 101.0 88.9 80.1
79.6%
Dylan Moore HAW F 10 694K 101.0 83.5 85.1
77.0%
Dayne Zorko BRI M/F 8 721K 101.0 83.4 83.6
76.9%
Tim Membrey STK F 4 536K 100.0 57.2 50.8
61.9%
Todd Marshall PTA F 8 436K 100.0 52.6 48.8
58.6%
Tom Mitchell COL M 10 807K 100.0 96.4 93.0
83.5%
Connor Rozee PTA M/F 10 835K 100.0 94.9 97.9
82.8%
Jack Crisp COL M 10 652K 100.0 80.4 75.4
75.7%
Charlie Curnow CAR F 10 772K 100.0 77.9 88.0
74.5%
Jacob Weitering CAR D 10 559K 100.0 60.1 68.5
63.8%
Jake Soligo ADE M/F 10 604K 99.0 65.4 68.4
67.6%
Aaron Hall NTH D 3 814K 99.0 93.9 97.7
82.7%
Liam Duggan WCE D 10 773K 99.0 88.1 86.1
80.0%
Sam Berry ADE M 4 569K 99.0 73.3 49.3
72.3%
Jacob Wehr GWS M 2 466K 99.0 44.3 27.5
52.5%
Liam Baker RIC D/F 10 670K 99.0 71.8 80.8
71.4%
Ben Ainsworth GCS F 8 610K 99.0 70.1 68.8
70.5%
Tom Liberatore WEB M 9 876K 99.0 100.8 105.3
85.7%
Jarrod Witts GCS R 8 777K 99.0 91.0 93.1
81.4%
Shannon Hurn WCE D 6 674K 98.0 77.8 74.0
75.2%
Jack Lukosius GCS F 10 603K 98.0 70.9 69.9
71.4%
Taylor Adams COL M/F 9 610K 97.0 77.2 67.9
75.3%
Paddy McCartin SYD D 4 436K 97.0 45.2 40.0
54.0%
Mitch McGovern CAR D 9 549K 97.0 62.9 66.3
66.9%
LOWEST BREAKEVENS TEAM POS GP $ BE PS AVG PROBABILITY
Josh Weddle HAW D 4 395K -4.0 61.8 65.0
181.8%
Bailey Humphrey GCS M/F 7 423K -3.0 63.0 54.7
178.5%
Lachlan McAndrew SYD R/F 1 230K -2.0 56.5 66.0
176.2%
Kaine Baldwin ESS F 2 317K 2.0 53.8 64.0
163.9%
Charlie Constable GCS D/M 2 422K 4.0 78.5 84.0
161.8%
Harry Sharp BRI M 3 332K 5.0 49.7 59.3
154.4%
Ned Moyle GCS R 2 268K 6.0 49.5 54.0
151.6%
George Wardlaw NTH M 1 327K 6.0 72.5 82.0
157.0%
Sam Butler HAW F 3 344K 7.0 50.7 53.3
149.4%
Phoenix Spicer NTH F 2 218K 10.0 35.0 35.5
132.2%
Cameron Fleeton GWS D 2 220K 12.0 37.3 36.0
128.6%
Bodhi Uwland GCS D/M 2 257K 12.0 43.8 47.5
133.4%
Daniel Turner MEL D 1 212K 13.0 40.5 41.0
128.7%
Corey Wagner FRE D/M 2 330K 13.0 51.5 58.0
135.7%
Mitch Knevitt GEE M 5 372K 14.0 50.5 49.0
133.1%
Matthew Johnson FRE M 6 309K 14.0 46.2 39.8
130.5%
Campbell Chesser WCE D/M 4 257K 14.0 43.3 36.8
128.4%
Seamus Mitchell HAW D/F 6 470K 14.0 61.8 68.3
138.6%
Ollie Lord PTA D/F 4 266K 15.0 39.4 39.0
123.1%
Dylan Williams PTA F 7 468K 15.0 62.5 61.4
137.1%
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher ESS D 9 434K 16.0 53.4 51.8
130.8%
Nick Larkey NTH F 10 404K 16.0 53.7 47.9
131.0%
Eddie Ford NTH F 1 365K 17.0 62.3 78.0
133.5%
Sam Sturt FRE F 3 253K 18.0 41.4 38.3
118.5%
Francis Evans PTA F 4 262K 18.0 35.1 31.8
112.4%
Hewago Paul Oea GCS F 3 309K 19.0 42.2 44.3
117.2%
Will Kelly COL D 2 208K 19.0 37.0 29.0
112.3%
Matt Roberts SYD M/F 5 223K 19.0 39.7 27.6
115.0%
Corey Warner SYD M/F 1 206K 20.0 37.3 32.0
110.6%
Josh Rotham WCE D 7 381K 20.0 57.6 40.6
126.2%
Bailey Banfield FRE F 9 455K 21.0 53.5 54.0
122.1%
Tyler Brockman HAW F 7 381K 22.0 48.0 50.4
116.6%
Tylar Young RIC D 6 268K 22.0 36.5 33.8
106.0%
Patrick Parnell ADE D 3 431K 22.0 56.2 59.3
122.1%
Max Ramsden HAW R/F 1 203K 22.0 34.0 28.0
103.2%
Will Gould SYD D 4 219K 23.0 32.2 28.0
99.1%
Bigoa Nyuon RIC D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Rhett Montgomerie ESS D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
James Borlase ADE D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Cody Raak WEB D/F 0 200K 25.0 50.0 0.0
113.3%
Andy Moniz-Wakefield MEL F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Sam Banks RIC D/M 0 200K 25.0 44.0 0.0
108.4%
Blake Coleman BRI F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Sandy Brock GCS D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Hugh Bond ADE M 0 202K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Sam Philp CAR F 0 201K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Nathan Barkla PTA M 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Hugh Jackson PTA M/F 0 200K 25.0 40.3 0.0
104.9%
Harvey Harrison COL F 0 200K 25.0 39.5 0.0
104.1%
Alastair Lord ESS D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Jaiden Magor SYD M/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Will Verrall MEL R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Oscar Adams STK D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Matthew Allison STK D/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Toby Conway GEE R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Zac Taylor ADE M 0 200K 25.0 50.0 0.0
113.3%
Darcy Wilmot BRI D/M 10 410K 25.0 52.4 52.0
115.1%
Angus McLennan STK D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Tom Brown RIC D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Oskar Faulkhead GCS M/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Brodie McLaughlin GCS F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Oscar Steene COL R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Kye Turner MEL D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Hudson O’Keeffe CAR R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Domanic Akuei CAR D/R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Max Heath STK R/F 0 200K 25.0 45.0 0.0
109.3%
Jacob Edwards NTH R/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Tariek Newchurch ADE F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Wade Derksen GWS F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Henry Smith BRI R/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Lachlan Rankin SYD D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Blake Howes MEL M/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Oliver Sestan MEL F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Kyah Farris-White MEL R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Cian McBride ESS D/R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Phoenix Foster GEE R/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Thomas Scully PTA F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Joshua Bennetts HAW M/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Kalin Lane BRI R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Taj Woewodin MEL M/F 0 200K 25.0 40.3 0.0
104.9%
Jack Williams WCE R/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Jordyn Baker WCE M 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Flynn Kroeger GEE M 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Josh Fahey GWS D/M 0 200K 25.0 40.3 0.0
104.9%
Patrick Voss ESS F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
William Edwards SYD D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Jack Peris STK M/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Jayden Davey ESS F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Conrad Williams FRE M 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Dante Visentini PTA R/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Cooper Harvey NTH M/F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Hamish Free NTH R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Joshua Draper FRE F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Karl Worner FRE D/M 0 200K 25.0 40.3 0.0
104.9%
Luke Nankervis ADE M/F 0 200K 25.0 45.0 0.0
109.3%
Kyle Marshall PTA D 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Cameron Owen SYD R 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Jacob Bauer RIC F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Kaelan Bradtke RIC F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%
Shadeau Brain BRI F 0 200K 25.0 40.0 0.0
104.6%